From complex to weaponized interdependence: Scenario-building in the Arctic

Resumen

La guerra de Ucrania plantea desafíos importantes para el Ártico y su mantra, “Extremo Norte – Baja Tensión”. La pausa del Consejo Ártico, las sanciones generalizadas contra Rusia y la rápida adhesión de Finlandia y Suecia a la OTAN están cambiando los contornos de la región. Este artículo analiza cómo la invasión rusa de Ucrania afectó a los asuntos del Ártico a través de la lente de la relación chino-rusa, utilizando el concepto de interdependencia militarizada de Farrell y Newman (2019) para esbozar escenarios geopolíticos futuros. Los hallazgos indican que la incorporación occidental de Beijing a los diálogos sobre el Ártico es clave para cubrir las dependencias económicas, políticas y de seguridad frente a Rusia.

Palabras clave:

Ártico, China, Rusia, interdependencia militarizada

Citas

Ålander, M. (2023, July 20). NATO’s New Northern Flank - Don’t Ruin It. Center for European Policy Analysis. https://cepa.org/article/natos-new-northern-flank-dont-ruin-it/

Alexeeva, O., & Lasserre, F. (2018). An analysis on Sino-Russian cooperation in the Arctic in the BRI era. Advances in Polar Sciences, 29(4), 269-282. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/330354805_An_analysis_on_Sino-Russian_cooperation_in_the_Arctic_in_the_BRI_era

Arctic Centre University of Lapland. (n.d.). Map of the Polar Silk Road. https://www.arcticcentre.org/EN/arcticregion/Maps/Polar_Silk_Road

Arctic Centre University of Lapland. (2023). Arctic Sea Ice Extent 2006/2023. https://www.arcticcentre.org/EN/arcticregion/Maps/Sea-Ice

Auerswald, D. (2020, October 12). NATO in the Arctic: Keep its role limited, for now. War on the Rocks. https://warontherocks.com/2020/10/nato-in-the-arctic-keep-its-role-limited-for-now/

Bachulska, A., & Leonard, M. (2023, July 11). China and Ukraine: The Chinese debate about Russia’s war. European Council on Foreign Relations. https://ecfr.eu/publication/china-and-ukraine-the-chinese-debate-about-russias-war-and-its-meaning-for-the-world/

Balton, D., & Bloom, E. T. (2021, May 26). N.º 6 - A Portrait of the Arctic Council at 25. The

Polar Institute. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/no-6-portrait-arctic-council-25

Berman, N., & Siripurapu, A. (2023, February 21). Two Years of War in Ukraine: Are sanctions against Russia making a difference? Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/two-years-war-ukraine-are-sanctions-against-russia-making-difference

Boulègue, M. (2022). The militarization of Russian polar politics. Research Paper, Russia and Eurasia Programme. Chatham House. https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/2022-06/2022-06-06-militarization-russian-polar-politics-boulegue_0.pdf

Byers, M. (2017). Crises and international cooperation: An Arctic case study. International relations, 31(4), 375-402. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047117817735680

Canova, E., & Pic, P. (2023, June 13). The Arctic Council in Transition: Challenges and Perspectives for the New Norwegian Chairship. The Arctic Institute. https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/arctic-council-transition-challenges-perspectives-new-norwegian-chairship/

Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). (2022, February 23). What are the weaknesses of the China-Russia relationship? China Power Project. https://chinapower.csis.org/china-russia-relationship-weaknesses-mistrust/

Conley, H. A., & Arts, S. (2023, July 5). NATO’s policy and posture in the arctic: Revisiting Allied capabilities and command plans. German Marshall Fund (GMF). https://www.gmfus.org/news/natos-policy-and-posture-arctic-revisiting-allied-capabilities-and-command-plans

Doshi, R., Dale-Huang, A., & Zhang, G. (2021). Northern Expedition: China’s Arctic Activities and Ambitions. Foreign Policy at Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/northern-expedition-chinas-arctic-activities-and-ambitions/

Edvardsen, A. (2023a, April 28). China wants to support Norway in restoring the Arctic Council. High North News. https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/china-wants-support-norway-restoring-arctic-council

Edvardsen, A. (2023b, September 1). Massive Russian Mobilization in the Arctic, High North News’ Overview Shows. High North News. https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/massive-russian-mobilization-arctic-high-north-news-overview-shows

Edvardsen, A. (2023c, September 12). Light at the end of the tunnel for the Arctic Council. High North News. https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/light-end-tunnel-arctic-council

Eiterjord, T. (2022, March 25). What does Russia’s invasion of Ukraine mean for China in the Arctic? The Diplomat. https://thediplomat.com/2022/03/what-does-russias-invasion-of-ukraine-mean-for-china-in-the-arctic/

Farrell, H., & Newman, A. L. (2019). Weaponized interdependence: How global economic networks shape state coercion. International Security, 44(1), 42-79. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00351

Foreign Affairs Committee. (2022, October 25). China Regional Snapshot: Arctic. https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/china-regional-snapshot-arctic/

Greenwood, J., & Luo, S. (2022, April 4). Could the Arctic be a wedge between Russia and China? War on the Rocks. https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/could-the-arctic-be-a-wedge-between-russia-and-china/

Gricius, G. (2023, April 25). From Russia to Norway: Three scenarios for the Arctic Council’s future after the chairmanship handover. European Leadership Network. https://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/from-russia-to-norway-three-scenarios-for-the-arctic-councils-future-after-the-chairmanship-handover/

Gronholt-Pedersen, J. (2021, May 20). Russia calls for military meetings between Arctic States as tensions rise. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/russias-lavrov-calls-military-dialogue-between-arctic-states-2021-05-20/

Gupta, P. (2023, June 26). China’s steadily expanding investments in Russia since the Ukraine conflict. Observer Research Foundation. https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/chinas-steadily-expanding-investments-in-russia-since-the-ukraine-conflict

Holm, A. O. (2023, March 17). Barely anyone talks of low tension in the Arctic anymore. High North News. https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/barely-anyone-talks-low-tension-arctic-anymore

Hou, Y. (2023, June 17). Ambassador Hou Yue visits Tromsø. Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in the Kingdom of Norway. http://no.china-embassy.gov.cn/eng/zngx_1/zzgx/202306/t20230617_11099280.htm

Humpert, M. (2011, September 15). The future of the Northern Sea Route - a “golden waterway” or a niche trade route. The Arctic Institute. https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/future-northern-sea-route-golden-waterway-niche/

Humpert, M. (2022a, May 2). Total Announces $4.1bn write-off placing Future of Russian Arctic LNG Projects in Further Doubt. High North News. https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/total-announces-41bn-write-placing-future-russian-arctic-lng-projects-further-doubt

Humpert, M. (2022b, May 10). EU sanctions Stop Construction of Arctic LNG 2 Modules in China. High North News. https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/eu-sanctions-stop-construction-arctic-lng-2-modules-china

Humpert, M. (2023a, February 23). Russia Amends Arctic Policy Prioritizing “National Interest” and Removing Cooperation Within Arctic Council. High North News. https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/russia-amends-arctic-policy-prioritizing-national-interest-and-removing-cooperation-within-arctic

Humpert, M. (2023b, September 11). Transport of LNG Modules to Russia Continues, Calling Effectiveness of EU Sanctions Into Question. High North News. https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/transport-lng-modules-russia-continues-calling-effectiveness-eu- sanctions-question

Humpert, M. (2023c, October 6). India Looking to Cooperate With Russia on Development of Arctic Northern Sea Route. High North News. https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/india-looking-cooperate-russia-development-arctic-northern-sea-route

IEA. (2022a). A 10-point plan to reduce the European Union’s reliance on Russian natural gas. International Energy Agency. https://www.iea.org/reports/a-10-point-plan-to-reduce-the-european-unions-reliance-on-russian-natural-gas

IEA. (2022b, March 21). Energy fact sheet: Why does Russian Oil and Gas Matter? International Energy Agency. https://www.iea.org/articles/energy-fact-sheet-why-does-russian-oil-and-gas-matter

Kankaanpää, P., & Young, O. R. (2012). The effectiveness of the Arctic Council. Polar Research, 31(1), 17176.

Käpylä, J., & Mikkola, H. (2015). On Arctic exceptionalism: Critical reflections in the light of the Arctic Sunrise case and the crisis in Ukraine (FIIA Working paper n.º 85). Finnish Institute for International Affairs. https://www.fiia.fi/en/publication/on-arctic-exceptionalism

Kendall-Taylor, A., & Lokker, N. (2023, April 27). Russia-China Defense Cooperation. Center for a New American Security. https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/russia-china-relations

Keohane, R. O., & Nye, J. S. (1989). Power and interdependence (2ª ed). Harper Collins.

Kjellén, J. (2022). The Russian Northern Fleet and the (Re) militarisation of the Arctic. Arctic Review on Law and Politics, 13, 34-52.

Landriault, M., Kirchner, S., Leander Nielsen, R., & Minard, P. (2023, May 31). Predicting the future Arctic: Views from an arctic expert survey. Arctic Circle. https://www.arcticcircle.org/journal/predicting-the-future-arctic-views-from-an-arctic-expert-survey

Lo, B. (2020). The Sino-Russian partnership and global order. China International Strategy Review, 2, 306-324. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42533-020-00063-7

Lokker, N., & Hautala, H. (2023, March 30). Russia won’t sit idly by after Finland and Sweden join NATO. War on the Rocks. https://warontherocks.com/2023/03/russia-wont-sit-idly-by-after-finland-and-sweden-join-nato/

McVicar, D. (2022, May 10). How the Russia-Ukraine War Challenges Arctic Governance. Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/blog/how-russia-ukraine-war-challenges-arctic-governance

Mikkola, H., Paukkunen, S., & Toveri, P. (2023). Russian Aggression and the European Arctic: Avoiding the Trap of Arctic Exceptionalism. Finnish Institute for Foreign Affairs. FIIA Briefing paper 359. https://www.fiia.fi/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/bp359_russian-aggression-and-the-european-arctic_harri-mikkola-samu-paukkunen-pekka-toveri.pdf

Milne, R. (2023, June 5). Arctic chill: Western nations fear China and Russia will exploit regional tensions. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/ef7d5f39-4a59-4774-888c-ade3c2354b63

Moe, A., & Stokke, O. S. (2019). Asian Countries and Arctic Shipping: Policies, Interests and Footprints on Governance. Arctic Review on Law and Politics, 10, 24-52.

Moe, A., Heggelund, G., & Fürst, K. (2023). Sino-Russian Cooperation in Arctic Maritime Development: Expectations and Contradictions. Europe-Asia Studies, 75(8), 1360-1383. https://doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2023.2212144

North Atlantic Treaty Organization. (2023, July 11). Vilnius Summit Communiqué. Issued by NATO Heads of State and Government participating in the meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Vilnius 11 July 2023. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_217320.htm

Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. (2023). Norway’s Chairship. Artic Councial 2023-2025. https://www.regjeringen.no/contentassets/034e4c4d49a44684b5fb59568103702e/230322_ud_ac_programbrosjyre_en_web.pdf

Novatek. (2023, August 16). Press Releases and Events. GBS Platform of Arctic LNG 2’s first LNG train installed at Gydan. https://www.novatek.ru/en/press/releases/index.php?id_4=5927

Novatek. (n.d.). Project Arctic LNG 2. https://www.novatek.ru/en/business/arctic-lng/

Offerdal, K. (2011). The EU in the Arctic: In pursuit of legitimacy and influence. International Journal Canada’s Journal of Global Policy Analysis, 66(4), 861-877. https://doi.org/10.1177/002070201106600414

Office of the Spokesperson. (2022, March 3). Joint Statement on Arctic Council Cooperation Following Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine. U.S. Department of State. https://www.state.gov/joint-statement-on-arctic-council-cooperation-following-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/

Pincus, R. (2020). Three-way power dynamics in the Arctic. Strategic Studies Quarterly, 14(1), 40-63. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26891883

President of Russia. (2022, February 4). Joint Statement of the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China on the International Relations entering a New Era and the Global Sustainable Development. http://en.kremlin.ru/supplement/5770

России, M. (2023, March 21). Российско-китайские переговоры. http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70748

Rantanen, M., Karpechko, A. Y., Lipponen, A., Nordling, K., Hyvärinen, O., Ruosteenoja, K., Vihma, T., & Laaksonen, A. (2022). The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979. Communications Earth & Environment, 3(168), 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00498-3

Raspotnik, A., & Østhagen, A. (2021, March 10). N.º 3 | A Global Arctic order under threat? An agenda for American leadership in the North. The Polar Institute. https://w w w. w i l s o n c e n t e r. o rg / b l o g - p o s t / n o - 3 - g l o b a l - a r c t i c - o r d e r- u n d e r- t h r e a t - a g e n d a -american-leadership-north

Revkin, A. C. (2007, October 2). Arctic Melt Unnerves the Experts. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/02/science/earth/02arct.html

Rogoff, A. (2022, March 5). It’s time for an Arctic Council 2.0. Arctic Business Journal. https://www.arctictoday.com/its-time-for-an-arctic-council-2-0/

Sengupta, S. (2019, May 6). United States rattles arctic talks with a sharp warning to China and Russia. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/06/climate/pompeo-arctic-china-russia.html

Steblyanskaya, A., Denisov, A., Bobylev, S., & Razmanova, S. (2022). How Russia’s trade with China influences carbon dioxide emissions in Russian regions. BRICS Journal of Economics, 3(4), 271-298.

Stephen, M. D., & Stephen, K. (2020). The integration of emerging powers into club institutions: China and the Arctic Council. Global Policy, 11(53), 51-60. https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.12834

Thatcher, I. (2022, August 8). Seven to one: The impact of Finnish and Swedish NATO membership on Arctic Security. Medium. https://medium.com/the-diplomatic-pouch/analysis-seven-to-one-the-impact-of-finnish-and-swedish-nato-membership-on-arctic-security-9f6543e1f1ba

The Coordination Centre of the Russian Government. (2023, June 6). Strategic session on the development of the Northern Sea Route. http://government.ru/en/news/48669/

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. (2023, September 18). Foreign Ministry statement on Russia’s withdrawal from the Barents Euro-Arctic Council. https://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/rso/1904899/

The State Council Information Office of the People’s Republic of China. (2018, January 26). Full text: China’s Arctic Policy. ENGLISH.GOV.VCN. https://english.www.gov.cn/archive/white_paper/2018/01/26/content_281476026660336.htm

The United States Government. (2022, October). The United States’ National Strategy for the Arctic Region. The White House. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statementsreleases/2022/10/07/fact-sheet-the-united-states-national-strategy-for-the-arctic-region/

Tingstad, A., & Pezard, S. (2023, May 15). What is next for the Arctic Council in the Wake of Russian Rule? The RAND Blog. https://www.rand.org/blog/2023/05/what-is-next-for-the-arctic-council-in-the-wake-of.html

Total Energies. (2017, December 7). Yamal LNG project begins gas exports. https://totalenergies.com/media/news/press-releases/yamal-lng-project-begins-gas-exports

Townsend, J., & Kendall-Taylor, A. (2021, March 30). Partners, Competitors, or a Little of Both? Russia and China in the Arctic. Center for a New American Security. https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/partners-competitors-or-a-little-of-both

Trevelyan, M. (2023, April 3). Russia says it will beef up military in northwest as Finland joins NATO - Ria. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-it-will-beef-up-military-northwest-finland-joins-nato-ria-2023-04-03/#:~:text=Grushko%20told%20RIA%3A%20%22We%20will,reliably%20ensure%20Russia’s%20military%20security.%22

U.S. Energy Information Administration EIA. (2012, January 20). Arctic oil and Natural Gas Resources. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=4650

U.S. Geological Survey. (2008). Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal: Estimates of Undiscovered Oil and Gas North of the Arctic Circle. U.S. Department of Interior. https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2008/3049/fs2008-3049.pdf

Wall, C., & Wegge, N. (2023, January 25). The Russian Arctic Threat: Consequences of the Ukraine War. Center for Strategic & International Studies. https://www.csis.org/analysis/russian-arctic-threat-consequences-ukraine-war

Webster, J. (2023, June 17). China and Russia May Be Expanding Natural Gas Cooperation- Just not via power of Siberia 2. The Diplomat. https://thediplomat.com/2023/06/china-and-russia-may-be-expanding-natural-gas-cooperation-just-not-via-power-of-siberia-2/

YLE News. (2023, May 24). Finland joins NATO’s Brunssum HQ in the Netherlands. https://yle.fi/a/74-20033236

Zhou, L. (2022, March 21). What next for China’s Polar Silk Road as Putin’s war sparks Arctic freeze? South China Morning Post. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3171179/what-next-chinas-polar-silk-road-russian-invasion-ukraine