Los efectos del cambio climático en América Latina en el contexto de diversas estrategias de política pública

Resumen

El objetivo de este artículo es estimar los efectos del cambio climático en América Latina en el contexto de diversas estrategias de política pública global. La metodología identifica a los impactos del cambio climático a través de los efectos de las fluctuaciones aleatorias del clima sobre el Producto Interno Bruto per cápita, el PIB agrícola e industrial y la inversión con base en un modelo de proyección local (Jordà, 2005). Los resultados obtenidos indican que el cambio climático tiene efectos significativos, amplios y generalizados en América Latina, principalmente a través de la temperatura, y que estos efectos son heterogéneos, más intensos en países con temperaturas más elevadas y con menor ingreso per cápita y donde los shocks de temperatura se atenúan lentamente con diferencias entre países. Los escenarios climáticos y de política pública respectiva muestran que las estrategias de política pública son relevantes para identificar a los efectos del cambio climático. Ello muestra la importancia de que América Latina contribuya a la definición de las estrategias de política pública globales en las negociaciones sobre el cambio climático.

Palabras clave:

Cambio climático, efectos, América Latina

Citas

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