Impacto sobre la economía española de un desacoplamiento de la Unión Europea con China

Resumen

Este trabajo utiliza un modelo cuantitativo de comercio internacional de equilibrio general para evaluar el impacto sobre el comercio y el bienestar de un hipotético desacoplamiento comercial entre la Unión Europea y China. Un desacoplamiento total reduciría el nivel de bienestar de España, medido en términos de renta per cápita de 2022, en un –0,82 %. Las exportaciones totales descenderían un –3,76 %. Un 20 % del desacoplamiento total reduciría el bienestar en –0,40 %. En el caso de un desacoplamiento unilateral sin represalias, la Unión Europea sufriría más que China. Imponer solamente barreras a los insumos intermedios tendría un impacto mayor sobre el comercio y el bienestar que imponer barreras solamente a los bienes finales.

Palabras clave:

guerra comercial, proteccionismo, bienestar, geopolítica

Citas

Aichele, R., & Heiland, I. (2018). Where is the value added? Trade liberalization and production networks. Journal of International Economics, 115, 130-144. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2018.09.002

Anderson, J. E., & Van Wincoop, E. (2004). Trade costs. Journal of Economic Literature, 42(3), 691-751. https://doi.org/10.1257/0022051042177649

Andersson, P., & Lindberg, F. (2024). National perspectives on Europe’s de-risking from China. A Report by the European Think-tank Network on China (ETNC). https://www.aies.at/download/2024/etnc-2024_national-perspectives-on-europes-de-risking-from-china.pdf

Antràs, P. (2020). De-Globalisation? Global Value Chains in the Post-COVID-19 Age (NBER Working Paper No. w28115). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://www.nber.org/papers/w28115

Antràs, P. (2024). The Uncharted Waters of International Trade (NBER Working Paper No. 33312). National Bureau of Economic Research.

Attinasi, M., Boeckelmann, L., & Meunier, B. (2024). The economic costs of supply chain decoupling. The World Economy, 48(3), 598-627. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13655

Balteanu, I., Fernández, A. y Quintana, J. (2024). La exposición de las empresas españolas a la importación de insumos críticos de China: un análisis basado en encuestas. Boletín Económico, 2024/T4, 02. Banco de España.

Baqaee, D. R., & Farhi, E. (2024). Networks, barriers, and trade. Econometrica, 92(2), 505-541. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA17513

Bekkers, E. (2017). Comparing CGE and NQT models: a formal overview of the model structures. World Trade Organization.

Bekkers, E., & Góes, C. (2022). The impact of geopolitical conflicts on trade, growth, and innovation: An illustrative simulation study. In L. Garicano, D. Rohner & B. W. di Mauro (Eds.), Global Economic Consequences of the War in Ukraine. Sanctions, Supply Chains and Sustainability (pp. 200-206). Centre for Economic Policy Research.

Blanga-Gubbay, M., & Rubínová, S. (2023). Is the global economy fragmenting? (WTO Working Paper No. ERSD-2023-10). World Trade Organization. https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/280428

Bolhuis, M. A., Chen, M. J., & Kett, B. R. (2023). Fragmentation in global trade: Accounting for commodities (IMF Woking Paper No. 23/73). International Monetary Fund.

Borin, A., Conteduca, F. P., Di Stefano, E., Gunnella, V., Mancini, M., & Panon, L. (2023). Trade decoupling from Russia. International Economics, 175, 25-44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2023.05.001

Brinza, A., Berzina-Čerenkova, U. A., Le Corre, P., Seaman, J., Turcsányi, R., & Vladisavljev, S. (2024). EU-China relations: De-risking or de-coupling− the future of the EU strategy towards China. European Parliament. https://doi.org/10.2861/960931

Caliendo, L., & Parro, F. (2015). Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTA. Review of Economic Studies, 82(1), 1-44. https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdu035

Comisión Europea. (2019). EU-China–A Strategic Outlook. Joint Communication to the European Parliament, the European Council and the Council.

Comisión Europea. (2021). Strategic dependencies and capacities. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52021SC0352#document1

Consejo de la Unión Europea. (2016). Council conclusions on implementing the EU global strategy in the area of security and defence. Council Conclusions, 14149.

Costinot, A., & Rodríguez-Clare, A. (2014). Trade Theory with Numbers: Quantifying the Consequences of Globalization. Handbook of International Economics, 4, 197-261. Elsevier B.V. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-444-54314-1.00004-5

Cuñat, A., & Zymek, R. (2024). Bilateral Trade Imbalances. The Review of Economic Studies, 91(3), 1537-1583. https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdad052

De Lucio, J., Díaz-Mora, C., Mínguez, R., Minondo, A., & Requena, F. (2023). Do firms react to supply chain disruptions? Economic Analysis and Policy, 79, 902-916. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2023.07.004

Dekle, R., Eaton, J., & Kortum, S. (2007). Unbalanced trade. American Economic Review, 97(2), 351-355. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.97.2.351

Dhingra, S., Huang, H., Ottaviano, G., Pessoa, J. P., Sampson, T., & Van Reenen, J. (2017). The costs and benefits of leaving the EU: trade effects. Economic Policy, 32(92), 651-705. https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eix015

Eaton, J., & Kortum, S. (2002). Technology, Geography, and Trade. Econometrica, 70(5), 1741-1779. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0262.00352

Egger, P., Larch, M., Nigai, S., & Yotov, Y. (2021). Trade costs in the global economy: Measurement, aggregation and decomposition (WTO Working Paper No. ERSD-2021-2). World Trade Organization. https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/reser_e/ersd202102_e.pdf

Eppinger, P., Felbermayr, G. J., Krebs, O., & Kukharskyy, B. (2021). Decoupling Global Value Chains (CESifo Working Paper No. 9079). Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo). https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/235449

Felbermayr, G., Mahlkow, H., & Sandkamp, A. (2023). Cutting through the value chain: the long-run effects of decoupling the East from the West. Empirica, 50(1), 75-108. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-022-09561-w

Hakobyan, S., Meleshchuk, S., & Zymek, R. (2023). Divided We Fall: Differential Exposure to Geopolitical Fragmentation in Trade (IMF Woking Paper No. 2023/270). International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400262302.001

Irwin, D. A. (2020). Free trade under fire (Fifth edition). Princeton University Press.

Javorcik, B., Kitzmueller, L., Schweiger, H., & Yıldırım, M. A. (2024). Economic costs of friendshoring. The World Economy, 47(7), 2871-2908. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13555

Oficina Nacional de Prospectiva y Estrategia. (2023). Resilient EU2030: A future-oriented approach to reinforce the EU’s Open Strategic Autonomy and Global leadership. Spain’s National Office of Foresight and Strategy.

Puglierin, J., & Zerka, P. (2023). Keeping America close, Russia down, and China far away: How Europeans navigate a competitive world. European Council on Foreign Relations. Retrieved from JSTOR. http://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep50636

Remond-Tiedrez, I., & Rueda-Cantuche, J. M. (2019). EU inter-country supply, use and input-output tables: Full international and global accounts for research in input-output analysis (FIGARO). Publications Office of the European Union in Luxembourg.

Shepherd, B. (2022). Modelling global value chains: From trade costs to policy impacts. The World Economy, 45(8), 2478-2509. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13268

Yotov, Y. V., Piermartini, R., Monteiro, J. -A., & Larch, M. (2016). And Advanced Guide to Trade Policy Analysis: The Structural Gravity Model. World Trade Organization.