Dimensión geopolítica y de seguridad del cambio climático: una perspectiva climática de la gobernanza global

Resumen

Los efectos del cambio climático y de las medidas de mitigación y adaptación tienen consecuencias políticas y de seguridad. Los eventos climáticos extremos derivados del cambio climático afectan al territorio y a la población de los Estados y, en los escenarios más expuestos y vulnerables, pueden provocar situaciones de inseguridad. Este artículo propone adaptar la gobernanza global desde una perspectiva climática para prevenir y prepararse para un escenario geoestratégico transformado por las consecuencias del cambio climático. Los Estados y las organizaciones internacionales deben incluir el cambio climático en sus agendas, integrar transversalmente las consideraciones climáticas en sus políticas y actividades, y desarrollar los mecanismos y foros necesarios para abordar las posibles disputas derivadas de los efectos del cambio climático y de la lucha para combatirlo.

Palabras clave:

cambio climático, geopolítica climática, seguridad climática, perspectiva climática de la gobernanza global

Citas

Aykut, S. C., & Maertens, L. (2021). The climatization of global politics: introduction to the special issue. Internatinal Politics, 58(4), 501-518.

Buhaug, H., Benjaminsen, T. A., Gilmore, E. A., & Hendrix, C. S. (2023). Climate-driven risks to peace over the 21st century. Climate Risk Management, 39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2022.100471

Busby, J. W. (2007). Climate Change and National Security: An Agenda for Action. Council on Foreign Relations Press.

Busby, J. W. (2008). Who Cares about the Weather?: Climate Change and U.S. National Security. Security Studies, 17(3), 468-504. https://doi.org/10.1080/09636410802319529

Busby, J. W. (2019). The field of climate and security: a scan on the literature. The Social Science Research Council (SSRC).

Collier, S. J., Elliott, R., & Lehtonen, T.-K. (2021). Climate change and insurance. Economy and Society, 50(2), 158-172. https://doi.org/10.1080/03085147.2021.1903771

Cook, N., & Butz, D. (2016). Mobility Justice in the Context of Disaster. Mobilities, 11(3), 400-419. https://doi.org/10.1080/17450101.2015.1047613

CSIS. (2023). The Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program, Arctic Military Activity Tracker. The Center for Strategic and International Studies. Accedido: 11 de diciembre de 2023. https://arcticmilitarytracker.csis.org/

CSNU. (14 de febrero de 2023). Amenazas a la paz y la seguridad internacionales. El aumento del nivel del mar: consecuencias para la paz y la seguridad internacionales. S/PV.9260. Consejo de Seguridad de las Naciones Unidas.

De Soysa, I. (2000). The Resource Curse: Are Civil Wars Driven by Rapacity or Paucity? In M. Berdal & D. M. Malone (Eds.), Greed and Grievance: Economic Agendas in Civil Wars (pp. 113-135). Lynne Rienner Publishers.

Dela Fuente, J. N. (2019). Comprehensive Analysis of Climate Change Effects on Military Bases. UCLA. Accedido: 13 de noviembre de 2023. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3k7771dd

European Union. (2022). A strategic compass for security and defence. Accedido: 17 de noviembre de 2023. https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/strategic-compass-security-and-defence-0_en

García Rico, L. (2022). NATO and Climate Change: A Climatized Perspective on Security. Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.

Gilmore, E. A., & Buhaug, H. (2021). Climate mitigation policies and the potential pathways to conflict: Outlining a research agenda. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, 12(5), e722. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.722

Hansen, J. E., Sato, M., Simons, L., Nazarenko, L. S., Sangha, I., Kharecha, P., Zachos, J. C., von Schuckmann, K., Loeb, N. G., Osman, M. B., Jin, Q., Tselioudis, G., Jeong, E., Lacis, A., Ruedy, R., Russell, G., Cao, J., & Li, J. (2023). Global warming in the pipeline. Oxford Open Climate Change, 3(1). https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfclm/kgad008

Hein, L., Metzger, M. J., & Moreno, A. (2009). Potential impacts of climate change on tourism; a case study for Spain. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 1(2), 170-178. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2009.10.011

IMF. (2024). Climate Change. Accedido: 29 de mayo de 2024. https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/climate-change

IPCC. (2022a). Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Assessment. Report 6. Working Group II. Full Report. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Accedido: 24 de enero de 2024. https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/

IPCC. (2022b). Assessment Report 6 Working Group II. Summary for Policymakers. In Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.

IRENA. (2019). A new world: The geopolitics of the energy transformation. International Renewable Energy Agency. Global Commission on the Geopolitics of Energy Transformation.

Karagiannis, G. M., Cardarilli, M., Turksezer, Z. I., Spinoni, J., Mentaschi, L., Feyen, L., & Krausmann, E. (2019). Climate change and critical infrastructure-storms. European Commission, Luxembourg, Joint Research Center Technical Report JRC113721. https://doi.org/10.2760/986436

Lieberman, B., & Gordon, E. (2022). Climate Change in Human History: Prehistory to the Present (second edition). Bloomsbury Academic. Accedido: 15 de enero de 2024. https://catalog.jcls.org/Record/230885

NATO. (2021). NATO Climate Change and Security Action Plan. North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Accedido: 9 de noviembre de 2023. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_185174.htm

NATO. (2022). Resilience Committee. North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Accedido: 9 de noviembre de 2023. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_50093.htm

NOAA. (2023). The changing Arctic: A greener, warmer and increasingly accessible region. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. U.S. Department of Commerce. Accedido: 11 de diciembre de 2023. https://www.noaa.gov/explainers/changing-arctic-greener-warmer-and-increasingly-accessible-region

OECD. (2018). Climate-resilient Infrastructure (OECD Environment Policy Paper No. 14). The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Accedido: 13 de noviembre de 2023. https://www.oecd.org/environment/cc/policy-perspectives-climate-resilient-infrastructure.pdf

OTAN. (2022). NATO 2022 Strategic Concept. Organización del Tratado del Atlántico Norte. Accedido: 28 de marzo de 2022. https://www.nato.int/strategic-concept/

Pacillo, G., Liebig, T., Carneiro, B., Medina, L., Schapendonk, F., Kenduiywo, B., Craparo, A. C. W., Basel, A., Minoarivelo, H. O., Villa, V., Belli, A., Caroli, G., Madurga-Lopez, I., Scartozzi, C. M., DuttaGupta, T., Ramirez-Villegas, J., Achicanoy, E. H., Mendez, A. C., Resce, C., … Läderach, P. (2023). Measuring the climate security nexus: the Integrated Climate Security Framework. Accedido: 13 de noviembre de 2023. https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/5786/

Pal, I., Kumar, A., & Mukhopadhyay, A. (2023). Risks to Coastal Critical Infrastructure from Climate Change. Annual Review of Environment Resources, 48, 681- 712. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-112320-101903

PNUD. (1994). Informe sobre Desarrollo Humano. Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo. Accedido: 4 de mayo de 2023. https://hdr.undp.org/system/files/documents/hdr1994escompletonostats.pdf

Robbins Schug, G., Buikstra, J. E., Dewitte, S. N., Baker, B. J., Berger, E., Buzon, M. R., Davies-Barrett, A. M., Goldstein, L., Grauer, A. L., Gregoricka, L. A., Halcrow, S. E., Knudson, K. J., Spencer Larsen, C., Martin, D. L., Nystrom, K. C., Perry, M. A., Roberts, C. A., Santos, A. L., Stojanowski, C. M., … Zakrzewski, S. R. (2023). Climate change, human health, and resilience in the Holocene. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 120(4), e2209472120. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2209472120

Romanello, M., di Napoli, C., Green, C., Kennard, H., Lampard, P., Scamman, D., Walawender, M., Ali, Z., Ameli, N., Ayeb-Karlsson, S., Beggs, P. J., Belesova, K., Berrang Ford, L., Bowen, K., Cai, W., Callaghan, M., Campbell-Lendrum, D., Chambers, J., Cross, T. J., … Costello, A. (2023). The 2023 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: the imperative for a health-centred response in a world facing irreversible harms. The Lancet, 402(10419), 2346-2394. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(23)01859-7

Ross, M. L. (2015). What Have We Learned about the Resource Curse? Annual Review of Political Science, 18(1), 239-259. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-052213-040359

SCR. (2022). The UN Security Council and Climate Change: Tracking the Agenda after the 2021 Veto. Accedido: 26 de diciembre de 2023. https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/research-reports/the-un-security-council-and-climate-change-tracking-the-agenda-after-the-2021-veto.php

SGRP. (2023). Geoengineering. Harvard’s Solar Geoengineering Research Program. Accedido: 5 de octubre de 2023. https://geoengineering.environment.harvard.edu/geoengineering

Smith, B., & Waldner, D. (2021). Rethinking the Resource Curse. First edition. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108776837

Tacoli, C. (2009). Crisis or adaptation? Migration and climate change in a context of high mobility. International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), 21(2), 513-525. Environment & Urbanization. Sage Publications. https://doi.org/10.1177/0956247809342182

Werrell, C. E., & Femia, F. (2017, June). Epicenters of Climate and Security: The New Strategic Landscape of the Anthropocene. The Center for Climate and Security.

World Bank. (2024). Climate Change - Overview – Strategy. Accedido: 29 de mayo de 2024. https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/climatechange/overview