Modelización avanzada del PER

Prosper Lamothe Fernández
Manuel González Fernández
Resumen

La valoración por múltiplos tiene en el PER (Price Earnings Ratio) uno de sus principales exponentes. La comparación del PER de un valor con la media histórica del mercado es un método común para evaluar la sobrevaloración o infravaloración de un activo. Este estudio analiza la relación del PER con variables y ratios obtenidos directamente de los estados financieros de compañías del Eurostoxx 600 y del SP500, empleando técnicas de machine learning. El objetivo del estudio es doble: determinar las variables con mayor impacto sobre el PER e identificar el algoritmo que mejor ajuste el comportamiento del PER, con el ánimo de completar la metodología de valoración de empresas desde la analítica avanzada de datos.

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Palabras clave:
corporate finance, Tobin, machine learning, árboles de decisión, regresión múltiple, lasso, cart, random forest, perceptrón multicapa
Citas

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