Cuando las instituciones se quiebran desde dentro: resiliencia institucional, globalización y democracia (1870-2025)

Resumen

El artículo analiza la resiliencia institucional ante los shocks sistémicos asociados a los grandes ciclos de globalización y a las amenazas revisionistas contemporáneas. Para ello, desarrolla un marco teórico articulado en tres dimensiones —estructural-policéntrica, histórico-adaptativa e interpretativo-discursiva— y lo contrasta empíricamente mediante indicadores V-Dem para el periodo 2013-2025, diferenciando cuatro tipos de régimen político. El principal resultado muestra que las democracias liberales registran la erosión institucional más intensa, no tanto por ataques externos, sino por dinámicas endógenas de vaciamiento democrático. La polarización política aparece como vector principal de deterioro y la movilización cívica democrática como contrapeso fundamental. Por último, el análisis revela que el deterioro de la dimensión interpretativo-discursiva precede a la erosión de las estructuras institucionales formales, lo que permite identificar indicadores con capacidad de anticipación.

Palabras clave:

resiliencia institucional, globalización, democracia, autocratización, V-Dem

Citas

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