China's economic outlook post-COVID-19 and beyond

Abstract

China’s economy was the first to suffer from the COVID-19 pandemic but also the first
to recover. However, its strong recovery has been short lived as China is entering a
rapid cycle of deceleration, which is speeding up its structural one. Beyond the shortterm
economic shocks, the consequences of the pandemic could impact medium-term
growth due to the acceleration of rising debt and financial risks. Looking beyond, China’s
structural deceleration is bound to intensify due to its aging population and a rapid
slowdown in labor productivity. Also, the radically deteriorating environment with foreign
countries, notably with the US, will also hamper China’s growth. Finally, China’s new
“common prosperity” mantra also has an important bearing on China’s growth prospects.

Keywords:

COVID-19, Chinese economy, population aging, US-China strategic competition

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